A distribuição do ICMS para os municípios cearenses pelo critério de repartição atual causa desenvolvimento municipal? uma análise a partir de um PVAR

Abstract

The main objective of this study was to verify the causal relationship between the transfer of ICMS, based on the current criterion for the distribution of these resources to the municipalities of Ceará, and a development indicator (IFDM). From a sample of 184 municipalities in Ceará, from 2005 to 2016, an auto-regressive vector model with panel data (PVAR) was estimated, following the approach of Love and Zicchino (2006). Therefore, the results, from the Granger causality test, showed empirical evidence of causality between the state transfer of ICMS by the current criterion and the IFDM. Furthermore, the impulse-response function shows that the attribution of shocks from a standard deviation in the ICMS exerted a representative influence in the IFDM. Through the study, it was observed, therefore, a causal relationship in the Granger sense between these two variables, as the results point to a positive relationship, using three lags as instruments of PVAR (1). Although the results presented confirm the hypothesis of the influence of municipal development in the State of Ceará, it is suggested that differentiated results can be obtained with the use or insertion of new variables.