Simulaçôes para produzir soja de forma sustentável na região do Matopiba

Abstract

Soybean production has advanced significantly since the 1990s in the MATOPIBA region, comprising the states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia. This work aims to simulate the capacity to produce soybean in a sustainable way in that region, without new areas being deforested or advancing over the areas destined for the production of family farmers. IBGE Municipal Agricultural Production data from 1990 to 2016 is used. Simulations are elaborated in which maximum limits were imposed for the areas to be harvested with soybean in the states, in such a way that they do not advance over those of family farmers and do not exceed a simulated threshold value. Thus, it is imperative that the growth of soybean production in the region, from those “upper areas”, happen only by productivity growth per hectare. The sustainability index (ISUS) is created using a factor analysis method with the decomposition technique into main components. The different simulations of responses between the different states are tested with respect to the average values of the ISUS and its probable growth rate is simulated in the investigated period from 1990 to 2016. The results obtained show that it is possible to produce soybean in this region, with positive geometric growth tax (GGT), without advancing in areas not yet deforested and / or occupied by family farmers. This is possible because the productivities that allow obtaining these results were observed in the states in the years that compose the analyzed historical series. General conclusion of the research: it is possible to grow soy in a sustainable way in the MATOPIBA region.