Análise dos fatores determinantes do valor dos contratos do Programa Agricultura de Baixo Carbono (ABC) no Brasil no ano safra 2014/15

Abstract

The increasing concentration of Green House Gases (GHG) in Earth’s atmosphere is pointed out as the main factor causing climate change. The agricultural sector plays a strategic role in the policies of mitigating the global warming effects, whereas this sector is the main emitter of GHG in Brazil. To reduce GHG emissions, Brazil has been developing the Low Carbon Agriculture Programme (LCA) with the objective of financing actions of GHG mitigation in the agricultural sector. The current work proposes to describe the distribution of that programme’s financial re‑ sources among Brazilian states, since it was launched, and analyse the factors that might be affecting that distribution. Data on the LCA Programme of the period 2010/2015 were described using descriptive statistic’s methods and tech‑ niques. To explain the variability of the contracts’ value in the crop season of 2014/2015, a log‑log multiple regression model was estimated. The results showed that the Middle‑East, South and Southeast regions concentrated the number and values of contracts in a considerably bigger proportion than those observed in the North and Northeast regions. The variables that affected significantly the value of contracts in the crop season of 2014/15 were the harvested area, the gross agricultural product (GAP) and the number of contracts closed on that season.