Regionalização hidrológica para o estado do Ceará: uma abordagem estatística das cheias

Abstract

In the elaboration of hydraulic works projects, such as dams, case studies related to possible affluent flow for a safe dimensioning. For this reason, the study of flood has great relevance, both in the dimensioning of dams and in the risk management plans inherent to these strategies. However, due to the lack of hydrological data in regions, such as northeastern Brazil, it is necessary to transport information from monitored regions to unmonitored regions. This work contemplates two approaches: a first proposes a model for calculating Triangular Synthetic Unit Hydrograph (HUST) and a second application methodology for regionalization of maximum flow rates for return times of 1.000 and 1.0000 years. This dissertation has as main objective to propose regionalization models for the study of floods, through multiple regressions, for the state of Ceará. The physics and hydrological characteristics used in the preparation of the equations were: drainage area, concentration time, length of the river main, difference in elevation between the exutory and the most remote point of the basin, peak flow, peak time and base time. For the development of calculations, electronic plans and statistical software R were used. The results obtained highlight the good approximation between the regression equations and the observed variables, considering both approaches mentioned above. It is concluded that a defined regionalization for these basins can be considered consistent, since all models were validated by statistical tests. In addition, the proposed models are easy to apply and can be used as a preliminary analysis in similar hydraulic projects.