Previsão de demanda: proposta de um modelo prático

Abstract

The objective of this paper was to propose a model of sales forecasting to any kind of product, basing the studies on the kitchen appliances industry, with the purpose of reducing errors and making easier the job of forecasting. It was proceeded a theoretical research on the main concepts and tools on the management of sales forecasting. As a sequence it was presented the main characteristics of the kitchen appliances industry in order to propose a forecasting model based on the PDCA cycle, having eight steps: quantitative aspects, qualitative aspects, hypothesis registration, final forecasting, real sales, registration of relevant facts, monitoring and errors measurement, and hypothesis revision. The model proposed had its use simulated in the company used as case study, presenting satisfactory results due to its simplicity, clearness and potential of improvements demonstrated.