Análise de convergência espacial de produtividade agrícola aplicada à região Nordeste do Brasil e aos municípios do Estado do Ceará

Abstract

This research proposes an analysis of agricultural productivity for the geographical microregions of Northeastern Brazil and the municipalities of the State of Ceará for the period from 1996 to 2017, considered to be the lowest agricultural productivity in the region. To obtain the answers to the questions presented here, the methods of spatial analysis and spatial econometrics are applied. For example, through the application of spatial econometrics methods, the hypothesis of convergence for agricultural productivity in the municipalities of Ceará is tested. Of particular relevance to the theory of growth and economic development, the convergence hypothesis characterizes a process according to which, initially, values of a certain variable are unequal between countries, states or regions, but this inequality is reduced over time. Such analysis identifies, in turn, if there is evidence for the existence of absolute and conditional convergence of agricultural productivity, explicitly controlling for spatial effects by subperiods. To this end, an exploratory analysis of spatial data was preliminarily conducted, which detected the presence of spatial autocorrelation for total agricultural productivity. In a later step, spatial econometric models were applied for the analysis of convergence. The empirical results indicated the presence of absolute β-convergence and conditional β-convergence for the Northeast and Ceará.