Analysis of water resources as social-natural system

Abstract

Water resources systems are composed of elements from two distinct and inseparable environments: the physical, chemical and biological environment, and the cultural environment, being defined as socio-natural systems. Therefore, in order to analyze the particularities of the water resources system, it is necessary to recognize these components as well as their interactions to guarantee water security.Thus, the present work proposes the application of strategic prospective techniques for the analysis of a water resources systemconsidering the various natural, infrastructure, institutional and socioeconomic components in order tocontemplate their complexity and uncertainty using mathematical tools,such as MicMac(Matrix of Cross-Impacts -Multiplications Applied to a Classification), Graph Theory and thesoftware R. The MicMacapproach was used to identify the socioeconomiccomponents,natural variablesand the relationships existing between them.Itwas obtained the metrics and the subsystems’ division,being able to identify the structure and interrelations of the socio-natural system.The key variables are: Critical hydrological events (Drought), Climate change, and Institutional Implementation of SINGERH(Brazil’s National Water Resources Management System). The central variables that received the largest number of connections were Human Supply and Water Use Conflicts. It was possible to classifythe model into five subsystems. These variables are critical uncertainties and outline the future, so they should be the base elements of prospecting studies.