Efeitos da expansão da soja na resiliência da agricultura familiar no Maranhão

Abstract

This paper made evaluations of food production in Maranhão State from 1940 to 2012. It uses data from IBGE and Getúlio Vargas Foundation. The data cover series of production value, yield per hectare and areas of rice, bean, cassava and corn. Beginning in 1990 it is included the series of those variables for soybean. It was evaluated the evaluation of soybean areas and its probable impacts over the areas and food production in Maranhão State. The production values were decomposed in its effects: prices, areas an yields per hectare. These were made by using log linear regressions of tendency. Finally it was simulated situations for resilience of food production by supposing that soybean areas were fixed in those values of 2012 and areas of rice, bean, cassava and corn had proportion equal of those observed in 1982, its best year of production. It also supposes that the yields per hectare of food production to be pursued were the top observed all over the series. The results showed that de decadence of familiar agriculture in Maranhão State beginning before the cultivation of soybean became relevant in this State in 1990. Otherwise, it is observed that soybean areas already overcome those used to exploit food crops. Whereas it is showed that if the Maranhão State Governors does not make agro ecological zones and still making inefficiency actions over the food production, it will be probable that soybean areas substitute food production areas in a very high rate. The simulations showed that under resilience it will be possible food production became more expressive than occurred in 1982, the reference year.