Efeitos assimétricos da taxa de câmbio sobre a balança comercial dos estados brasileiros

Abstract

This work aim to investigate whether Marshall Lerner Condition (CML) and J curve are detected in some Brazilian states. Therefore, it was performed a cointegration test of Johansen (1988) in order to verify the existence of positive long-term relationships on the trade balance, when a currency devaluation. For the J curve, it was estimated a vector error correction (VEC) and we made use of short-term correlations between the variables, graphically expressed through the impulse-response functions. What is new about this work is the consideration of regional impacts on the trade balance due to variations in regional real exchange rate. It appears that the eect of an exchange rate devaluation aects the states asymmetrically, ie, it might increase or decrease the balance of trade.