Reformas fiscais no Brasil: uma análise de sensibilidade da valoração do consumo público

Abstract

In the last decade, Brazil has experienced a drop in public investment in infrastructure as well as an increase in tax revenues, both results of the Government’s priority on maintaining primary surpluses with the mandatory spending increase. Recently, this model of fiscal policy brought instability to the Government’s budget. As a solution for this problem, it was proposed a tax reform that makes the real increase of Government spending impossible. Based on this new tax policy, this paper aims to simulate the effects of policies based on the New Tax Regime faced with different valuations of public consumption by individuals. The results suggest that policies to reduce taxes would bring more benefits to individuals, in terms of welfare, than the increases of investments in infrastructure. It also suggests that the effects of proposed policies will be smaller as the individuals value more the Government consumption in relation to private consumption.