Análise da dinâmica do comportamento fiscal do estado do Ceará considerando as relações de causalidade entre receitas e despesas

Abstract

This paper analyzes the performance of the dynamics of the fiscal behavior of the State of Ceará considering as causal relations between resources and expenses by studying the variables current revenues, current expenses and current transfers for the first two months of 2008 to the fourth two months of 2017. For this , the Autoregressive Vector Model (VAR) was used, as well as the Granger causality test to detect the direction of fiscal dynamics. This analysis allowed the existence of the flypaper effect to be identified. Also, "spend and tax". Also, how to spend and tax. In addition, it was verified that the future behavior of the current revenues of the state depends on the past results of its current expenses and its current transfers. In this way, managers define their collection strategies, taking into account the state of the good and the amount that was sold as a transference in the past.