Análise preditiva do campeonato brasileiro de futebol

Abstract

Football has become an object of scientific research, not only because of its high financial returns, but also because of its great popularity. The number of studies has been increasing on the Supply and Demand in the football market. Supply is represented by football clubs and sports leagues demand and is represented mainly by fans. It is a complex market, as teams must use cooperative strategies with their rivals to optimize the production of good football being characterized as complementary competitors. The objective of this paper is to analyze the factors affecting the performance of the clubs in the Brazilian championship, both in sports, as in the financial field. This is a quantitative study of descriptive and explanatory nature on the basis of secondary data. Three pooled logit models, two for estimating the probability of success in sports and were estimated to estimate the probability of financial success. The results were: participation of clubs in international competitions in size, as the Copa Libertadores increment your chances of sporting and financial success; the permanence of players between seasons increases the chances of financial success and billing teams positively affects the chances of the team to qualify for the Libertadores. For the descriptive analysis of the financial accounts of the teams in 2013, it is noticed that the indebtedness of clubs is growing, despite an increase in revenues.