Uma análise dos determinantes da inadimplência em convênios no Estado do Ceará no período 2010-2012

Abstract

Whereas the record of 3,993 agreements signed between the State of Ceará and public and private organizations, between the years 2010 and 2012, registered in Tracking Contracts and Agreements System - SACC and disseminated by the Transparency Portal of the State Executive Power , this dissertation analyzes the existence of variables linked to the granting agency resources, the receiving entity and concluded that the instrument itself , that can influence the condition of default of the agreement. Models with binary dependent variable with probit hypothesis are developed and the results allow us to conclude that variables defined in the act of the agreement subscription already allow indicate a greater or lesser likelihood of becoming default, which leads to the conclusion that the State, through legislation, regulations and policies of resource transfers, may take actions to minimize the amount of resource transfer with higher probability of default.