Sucesso eleitoral e a influência da profissão de médico: uma análise para a função de vereador no Município de Fortaleza

Abstract

The present study investigates some of the determinants of electoral success for candidates to the legislative power in the city of Fortaleza, taking as a basis the period 2008-2016. Specifically, it seeks to quantify the influence of the medical profession about the probability of election, vis-à-vis the campaign spending and the expertise of the candidate. To accomplish this goal, a binary dependent variable model is estimated with the totality of the potential candidates in three elections within that period, as well as performed simulations for different profiles of these individuals. The results of the estimations allow us to conclude that although the medical profession contributes positively to the electoral success, the candidate expertise has larger marginal effect, just as the cost of campaign show itself consistent in increasing this probability of success, while the age of the candidate proved to be insignificant. It is also confirmed the significant economic impact on elections outcome, as well as the influence of health professional in such political process, which meet the voters claim for renewal and change in the election political process.