Análise espacial da vulnerabilidade à seca utilizando metodologia iSECA: caso de estudo em São Paulo e Ceará

Abstract

The uncertainty in the water supply power due to changes in nature and the gaps in the observations prompts the need for greater efficiency in the management of water resources. Analysis of the vulnerability of a water system is an essential step in the development of strategies in the field of drought management and water security. The present study developed the iSECA methodology to analyze the vulnerability to drought in different scales. Vulnerability was quantified through the combination of indicators of sensitivity and exposure, compared to the influence of adaptive capacity, and was qualified through five different classifications, avoiding methodological bias. An analysis of the perception of drought impacts was carried out through the elaboration and application of a questionnaire among members of the public power, user sector and civil society, participants in resource management. The methodology was applied to the states of São Paulo and Ceará, in basin scale / hydrographic and municipal region. The method was efficient even applied in two regions with different climatic and socioeconomic dynamics, being assured the application of the method in other areas of study provided there is enough information to feed the indicators that constitute the indexes elaborated in this study.