Avaliação da rentabilidade em condições de risco do café ecológico da área de proteção ambiental da serra de Baturité-CE

Abstract

The largest coffee-producing region in the State of Ceará is located in an Area of Environmental Protection (AEP), where the producers live with real-estate speculation, price instability and low productivity. Given that, this paper assesses the ecological coffee profitability under risk conditions, of green coffee produced in the AEP. Therefore, it was used primary data regarding the 2007/2008 harvest season, in addition to secondary data. The method of analysis was Monte Carlo Simulation which was used to evaluate various scenarios. Taking the profits as decision criteria to make the producer stays in the activity, it was possible to identify the level of risk ranging from medium to high for producers that used machineries to process coffee; the largest average profit was achieved by the medium and large producers without processing machines. Thus, profitability in all scenarios was confirmed, with average outcomes higher than the established limits to the indicators.