Relação entre ideologia política e IDH-M: Um estudo de caso nos municípios cearenses

Abstract

The political polarization in the national scenario has increased in recent years. The debate over parties and government measures takes on an increasingly personal tone, leading to physical confrontation between groups during political marches. A dispassionate analysis is useful to determine whether ideological cleavages have any practical meaning. Thus, the present study aims to investigate if the ideology of rulers can influence the level of quality of life of the population. For this, two periods of the municipal elections in the State of Ceara were analyzed. In the first period, from 1988 to 2000, the parties were classified ideologically and the trajectory of the participation of each ideological orientation in the state scenario was analyzed. The second period, from 2000 to 2010, was analyzed using linear regressions using the Least Squares method. The estimates were made taking as a dependent variable the percentile increase of the HDI, as well as a percentile improvement of the HDIH gap, which corresponds to a distance between HDI and its maximum value. After the first estimates, factor analyzes were used to avoid problems with multicollinearity. All 12 estimates were made to analyze the same electoral period (from 2000 to 2008). The estimations did not find an acceptable number of statistically significant results (only 9 of 264 calculated coefficients were statistically significant). The scarcity of significant results can be explained by the small size of the database, or taken as indicative of the low impact of government ideological orientation, or as an indicative that personal and political competence may be more important than ideological orientation.