Análise multicritério do risco de desastres naturais: um estudo sobre a seca na região Nordeste do Brasil

Abstract

Historically, in Brazil it overcrew a general perception that there were no natural disasters in the country. Nevertheless, the reality of the Northeast of Brazil contrasts with this perception. This geographic area was the stage of crises motivated by adverse natural events, especially those ones triggered by droughts, which often cause numerous damages to lives and to social and economic organization. Therefore, the present investigation dealt with the phenomenon of risk to drought disaster, starting from the diagnosis of its structural notions: hazard, susceptibility and vulnerability. The objective of the research was to establish the intensity of the risk of natural disasters related to the occurrance of events that induce water scarcity in the municipalities that make up Brazilian Northeast, based on the measurement and analysis of variables indicative of the situation experienced. The theoretical contribution used was the Socioambiental Approach, since the construction of the environmental reality is produced by the relations between nature and society. The construction of the research was structured by five research activities, namely: planning, collection / organization, inventory, analysis and diagnosis. Regarding the results, the spatial detail of the drought-disasters and officially recognized between 2003 and 2014 is highlighted. It was determined that the most vulnerable municipalities are located in the northwest and west portions of the NEB, covering a considerable part of Maranhão and, more randomly, in Piauí. The risk to the drought disaster is more intense in the dry backlands of Alagoas, Ceará and Pernambuco. The very high and high risk classes covered 3.09% and 16.11% of the municipalities. The method applied allowed the integrated analysis of the natural and social facts, and can be applied in other investigations on the thematic of the risks.