Um estudo acerca das flutuações de arrecadação do ICMS dos estados brasileiros

Abstract

The Tax on Circulation of Goods and Transportation Services Delivery Interstate and Intermunicipal and Communication - ICMS is the main source of funding for states to fund public goods and services and their impact hypothesis be quite comprehensive, its collection is subject the numerous interferences be of national, regional or local order. This study aims to analyze the ICMS revenue fluctuations in the Brazilian states, examining the degree of representativeness of national, regional and local aspects through a latent model of dynamic factors. The data used refer to biannual ICMS collection in the states between January 1997 and September 2014. In the decomposition of the variance of the collection of ICMS, it is concluded that the national scope factor represents the main source of volatility of ICMS collections of federal units, suggesting a significant binding of GST revenue to the national economic situation. While the national factor has greater impact in the North, Northeast, South and Midwest, regional and local factors have greater impact in the Southeast.