Sustentabilidade da matriz energética Brasileira

Abstract

The world energy situation is undergoing changes due to the availability of resources, deployed technologies, the cost of production, the policies adopted by countries, and the amount of existing reserves and recently the need to move to cleaner sources. In this perspective, the present work aimed to measure the evolution of the composition and economic sustainability of the Brazilian energy matrix, between the years 1970 to 2014. In a specific way: to evaluate the evolution of Brazilian energy production in the period 1970 to 2014; assess the behavior of the energy supply and energy dependence on external in Brazil and check the impact of the index of external energy dependency (IDEXT) on the evolution of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Brazil in the period under investigation. The data used in the study were of secondary nature and analyzed in level Brazil. To estimate the indices we opted for the multivariate technique of factorial analysis, with decomposition in main componentes. Considering the obtained results, it was observed that since the oil crises of (1973 and 1979) the Brazilian energy matrix experienced transformations, with emphasis to the insertion of renewable sources. In contrast, there was a reduction in the production of wood, which in 1970 accounted for 64.2% of renewable sources, already in 2014 had a share of just 9.1% of the matrix renewable. For non-renewable sources, stood out the oil and natural gas, which despite the incentives for the reduction of sources of fossil origin, the same presented a trend of growth from 1970 to 2014. It was found that, during 25 years (1970- 1995) and in 24 years (1970-1994), Brazil has not presented a satisfactory performance in the production and supply of energy per capita, respectively, presenting high instability over the period. However, even with the increase in energy supply, the IDEXT presented upward trend, with a geometric rate of growth of 8.35%, considering that even with all the investment allocated to achieve the energy self-sufficiency, the need for import remained in ancestry to supply the domestic demand of energy. In addition, the survey showed that an increase of 0,1 unit in external dependence measured by IDEXT causes, in average, a reduction of 0.545 unit of the index in the Brazilian GDP. In this way, the dependence on energy imports cause negative effect in the internal economy of the country, making the product growth of aggregate. Faced with this situation, allows you to say that the Brazilian energy matrix,between the years 1970 and 2014, is not sustainable economically at delivering energy supply, and there is need for imports to meet the internal demand for this important production input and of quality of life. Moreover, the growing external dependence, as measured by IDEXT in this research, causes negative impacts in the formation of the wealth of the country.