Modernização agrícola na região de Sealba: motor de indução tecnológica ou vetor de exclusão produtiva?

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the determinant of agricultural modernization on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and formal agricultural employment in the Coastal Plateu region of Sergipe, Alagoas and Bahia (Sealba) in 2017. Specifically, it seeks to measure the determining factors of this modernization process. To this end, two methodological approaches were used: exploratory factor analysis with principal component decomposition, to identify latent structures associated with agricultural modernization, and conditional quantile regression, to assess its effects across the distribution of GDP and employment. The results revealed five main factors: technical-productive modernization; intensity of financial capital use; land productivity efficiency; agricultural transport infrastructure; and agricultural mechanization. The determinant of agricultural modernization varied across the quantiles of GDP and agricultural employment. Only factors 1 (FC1) and 3 (FC3) positively influenced the lower and median quantiles of GDP, while factor 2 (FC2) had a negative impact on employment at the 0.25 and 0.75 quantiles. Moreover, FC1 had a greater effect on formal employment than on GDP.