Demanda por crédito rural e expansão da produção agrícola do nordeste

Abstract

Agriculture plays a fundamental role in the Brazilian economy, accounting for a significant share of the Gross Domestic Product. However, agricultural expansion and sector modernization are directly linked to the availability of rural credit, which enables investments in infrastructure, technology, and inputs. In this context, this study aims to analyze the relationship between the demand for rural credit and the expansion of agricultural production in the Brazilian Northeast from 2013 to 2023, considering climatic and regional variables that may influence this dynamic. Thus, the research uses municipal-level data obtained from the Matriz de Dados de Crédito Rural of the Banco Central do Brasil, the SIDRA of the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística database, and the Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia. The methodology adopted is based on the application of simple and multiple linear regressions using the Ordinary Least Squares method, allowing the estimation of the impact of planted area on rural credit demand while considering the effects of temperature, rainfall, and temporal and spatial dummies. The results indicate that the expansion of planted area has a positive and statistically significant relationship with credit demand, although this relationship is inelastic. Climatic conditions also influence credit demand. While rainfall has a positive effect, rising temperatures significantly reduce the demand for financing. Additionally, the temporal analysis revealed a significant increase in the volume of credit over the studied period, with variations associated with political and economic factors. Regarding Matopiba, the results suggest that this region has a statistically lower demand for credit than other municipalities in the Northeast, but the numerical difference is insignificant. Furthermore, among all components of Rural Credit in 2023, the only one that stood out in terms of statistical significance was credit for industrialization, indicating that the planted area does not explain variations in industrialization credit. Therefore, it is concluded that the data from the analyzed period confirm the hypothesis that agricultural expansion increases credit demand. However, this study presents methodological limitations. More sophisticated methods, such as panel data analysis or specific causality models, would provide greater robustness to the conclusions and a more precise understanding of the dynamics of rural credit demand in the Brazilian Northeast.