Análise da convergencia espacial do setor agropecuario nos municipios do estado do Ceará

Abstract

According to the Institute for Research and Economic Strategy of Ceara (IPECE), the level of Gross Value Added (GVA) for the agricultural sector for the municipalities of the state of Ceara is one of the lowest in the country (IPECE, 2020). Therefore, this study aims to analyze and identify whether there was a decrease in interregional differences in the agricultural sector for these municipalities in the period from 2002 to 2020. During the analysis, the Exploratory Analysis of Spatial Data (AEDE) was used with the use of Moran's I statistic to evidence spatial autocorrelation, in addition to the use of a Local Indicator of Spatial Association (LISA) to identify spatial clusters. Next, a convergence-β regression was estimated to detect the presence of convergence for the analyzed sample. Thus, it was possible to determine whether the GVA per capita converges to a common steady state, showing that municipalities with lower levels of GVA per capita agriculture would have grown at higher rates compared to municipalities with higher levels. With the results of the analysis on Moran's I, positive spatial autocorrelation, and the majority presence of High-High (AA) and Low-Low (BB) clusters were verified. On the other hand, after estimating the regression for absolute β convergence, a negative β coefficient was observed, evidencing the assumption during the study that there is convergence for the GVA per capita of the agricultural sector of the municipalities of the state of Ceara in the period studied.