Análise de impacto da implementação do modelo de gestão para resultado sobre atividade econômica e política pública educacional dos estados brasileiros

Abstract

This study investigates the effects of adopting the Results-Based Management (RBM) model in Brazilian federative units, focusing on its impact on economic and educational indicators. In the economic domain, the selected outcome variables were the State Gross Domestic Product at Market Prices (State GDP) and the Current Revenue from ICMS (Tax on the Circulation of Goods and Services), as they represent, respectively, a broad measure of economic activity and a direct indicator of state tax revenue. In the educational field, the variable analyzed was the School Dropout Rate, given its relevance as a critical indicator of the performance of public education policies. The methodological strategy employed was the Staggered Difference-in-Differences approach, as proposed by Callaway and Sant’Anna, which allows for the estimation of causal effects in contexts where the policy of interest is adopted at different times across groups. The results show a statistically significant and positive average effect of the GPR on Current ICMS Revenue (2.74%) and on the School Dropout Rate (0.54%), indicating, respectively, punctual gains in tax collection efficiency and a possible worsening of school dropout. However, these effects were not sustained over time. No statistically significant effects—neither average nor dynamic—were found for State GDP. These findings point to limitations in the design and implementation of the policy, highlighting the need for a reassessment of its operational mechanisms and strategic framework.. Finally, the study contributes to the broader debate on the effectiveness of Results-Based Management models and encourages the continuous improvement of existing frameworks.