Proposta metodológica de análise da relação causal entre acessibilidade e participação em atividades sob a ótica da exclusão social relacionada a transportes

Abstract

The current reality of many cities in Latin America is characterized by a scenario of socio-spatial segregation of disadvantaged groups, which, consequently, prevents them from participating in the social life of their communities due to, notably, reduced or even nonexistent accessibility to opportunities, creating a risk of transport-related social exclusion. In this context, the causal relationship between accessibility and activity participation is crucial to understanding this type of social exclusion. However, the literature is not unanimous regarding the effect of accessibility on the level of individual participation in activities, which may be due to gaps in the formulation of proposed models; notably associated with the failure to consider accessibility in its four components, making them prone to errors due to sources of endogeneity, and consequently limiting their ability to identify causal relationships. In light of this, the main objective of this master's research was to develop a methodological proposal that would allow the analysis, from the perspective of transport-related social exclusion, of the causal relationship between accessibility and activity participation at the individual level, using observational data as well as the theoretical framework of Causal Inference, applied to Structural Equation Models. In this regard, the study contributes methodologically to the discussion by incorporating accessibility in its four components, identifying, in light of causal inference, the potential sources of bias linked to the causal relationship of interest, as well as considering the moderating effect that an individual's gender has on the investigated relationships. Furthermore, by consolidating a conceptual framework of the determinants influencing the decision-making process, as well as structuring the causal relationships underlying an individual's participation in activities from the perspective of transport-related social exclusion, and by applying the methodological proposal developed in the context of low-income individuals in Fortaleza, the study provides a phenomenological contribution to a deeper understanding of the issue at hand.