Modelagem LUTI das decisões locacionais de diferentes grupos socioeconômicos: determinantes e inter-relações

Abstract

In contrast to traditional transport modeling, LUTI operational models explore land use dynamics, in order to simulate locational decisions based on changes in accessibility levels. The logic behind this association is that places with better accessibility become more attractive and, therefore, are more likely to development in terms of territorial occupation. In practice, this type of dynamic can involve many socio-spatial processes, such as segregation and fragmentation, due to land value variations which results from the continuous process of urban infrastructure distribution. From this perspective, it is understood that the adoption of such models in ex-ante evaluations should reveal the possible externalities of interventions, especially from a social point of view. Thus, they must recognize not only interactions between subsystems, but also the processes inherent to each one. Therefore, this master thesis proposes to discuss how adequately such models represent and simulate the determinants and interrelationships of different socioeconomic groups locational decisions, considering the starting role of transport interventions in urban dynamics. At first, conceptual representations about both this decision-making process and the mentioned interrelationships were consolidated, recognizing that the land use pattern comes from families and firms location choices. These efforts support the analyze of a LUTI platform regarding its ability to simulate socio-spatial processes, which is done through a verification test of the operational model considering the mentioned representations. Then, it is also discussed which indicators or data can be used to represent the pre-established variables values, facilitating the intended application. In the end, it is concluded that even consolidated platforms can fail simulating socio-spatial processes derived from interventions in the transport subsystem, especially when the planner responsible for the modeling has no knowledge about the tool or phenomenon.