Estimando o impacto do estoque de capital público sobre o PIB per capita considerando uma mudança estrutural na relação de longo prazo

Abstract

This study aims to estimate the elasticity product-public expenditure to the Brazilian economy, during the period 1950-2005, with the aim of examining the long-term relationship between these variables. In making the estimate of the cointegration vector, it was considered was the occurrence of a structural change in of long term relationship caused by sharp reducing the rate of investment in the public sector in recent decades. The change in long-term relationship between variables can be captured by a change in component deterministic in the cointegration vector. The result of the test of instability of the cointegration vector, developed by Seo (1998), confirms the occurrence of change. Based on this result it was estimated the cointegration vector by Dynamic Least Squares allowing a structural change in component deterministic following the methodology proposed by Carrion-i-Silvestre e Sansó (2005). Estimates obtained are lower than those found in the literature.