Relação entre o investimento doméstico e o investimento estrangeiro direto em painéis dinâmicos e heterogêneos

Abstract

This study investigates the impacts of foreign direct investment (FDI) on domestic investment, emphasizing the existence of asymmetries associated with positive and negative foreign capitalshocks, as well as the heterogeneity and intertemporal dynamics between countries. The analysis is conducted using a balanced panel of approximately 60 countries, from 1995 to 2022, using gross fixed capital formation as a proxy for domestic investment. Methodologically, a non-linear panel autoregressive model with distributed lags (PNARDL) is adopted, estimated using the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator, which allows for the simultaneous capture of short- and long-term relationships, heterogeneity between cross-sectional units, and asymmetric responses to FDI shocks. The results point to the existence of cointegration between foreign and domestic investment, with robust evidence of asymmetry in long-term effects: positive FDI shocks exert a positive and statistically significant impact on domestic investment, while negative shocks also exert a positive impact on domestic investment, albeit with less magnitude and different persistence, reinforcing the relevance of non-linear approaches. Control variables, such as trade openness, price level, and per capita product growth, exhibit signals that are economically consistent with the literature. Overall, the findings support the hypothesis of long-term complementarity between foreign and domestic investment, although marked by heterogeneous and asymmetrical responses among the countries analyzed, contributing to the literature by integrating, within the same empirical framework, intertemporal dynamics, structural heterogeneity, and asymmetries, with relevant implications for the formulation of policies to attract foreign investment.