Clubes de convergência e dinâmica de preços do trigo no Brasil, Estados Unidos e Argentina (2004–2024)

Abstract

This study analyzes the behavior of wheat prices in the states of Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul, the main wheat-producing regions in Brazil, as well as in the markets of Rosario (Argentina), Kansas, and Chicago (USA), from January 2004 to June 2024. The objective is to investigate the existence of β and σ convergence, whether absolute or conditional, and to test for the formation of convergence clubs. For this purpose, the Phillips and Sul (2007) time series methodology is applied, using monthly data deflated by the IGP-DI and converted into current US dollars. The results indicate the absence of global convergence but reveal the formation of two distinct clubs: one composed of Brazilian prices (Curitiba and Porto Alegre) and another formed by international prices (Kansas, Chicago, and Up River). This differentiation shows that, although domestic prices follow international movements, they retain structural specificities related to import dependence, the absence of futures contracts, and the distinct seasonality of harvests, which constrain full integration. These factors highlight the importance of policies that strengthen the competitiveness of the sector, expand marketing infrastructure, and reduce vulnerability to external shocks.