Propostas de modelos para dimensionamento de dispositivos de controle de percolação interna - abraços - em barragens de terra por meio de técnicas de apredizado de máquina

Abstract

This research develops predictive models aimed at the optimized design of internal seepage control devices in earth dams, commonly referred to as wraparound, which play a key role in mitigating erosion processes along the soil–structure interface. To achieve this, an integrated approach was adopted, combining three-dimensional computational simulations based on the Finite Element Method (FEM) with machine learning techniques, enabling an in-depth analysis of hydraulic flow behavior across a wide range of geotechnical, hydraulic, and geometric conditions. The numerical modeling accounted for a series of parametric variations, including different values of hydraulic conductivity, degrees of saturation, foundation characteristics, and diverse geometries of the control devices. As a result, a robust and representative dataset was generated and used to train various machine learning algorithms, notably Artificial Neural Networks, Decision Trees, Random Forests, and the XGBoost model. Among the models evaluated, XGBoost exhibited the most satisfactory performance, achieving a coefficient of determination (R2) of 96.58% for the training dataset and 90.58% for the test dataset, along with low error metrics (Mean Absolute Error – MAE = 7.03; Root Mean Square Error – RMSE = 16.38; Mean Absolute Percentage Error – MAPE = 13.7%), demonstrating the model’s strong predictive capability in estimating the optimal device length. The use of these models enabled the identification of the most effective “abraço” configurations, leading to a reduction in critical hydraulic gradients and, consequently, the prevention of internal erosion mechanisms. Therefore, the findings provide valuable technical insights for improving earth dam design, particularly in contexts with limited experimental data, establishing a reliable, efficient, and cost-effective solution within geotechnical engineering applied to the safety of hydraulic structures.