Modelagem hidrodinâmica e da dispersão de óleo na zona costeira de Fortaleza-Ce: uma ferramenta de suporte à gestão ambiental e a planos emergenciais.

Abstract

Oil spill incidents pose a serious threat to coastal socio-ecological systems, potentially causing persistent environmental and socio-economic impacts and biodiversity loss. This dissertation evaluates the applicability of computational modeling as a support tool for port and environmental management, with emphasis on the development of emergency action plans for oil spill events in the coastal zone of Fortaleza (CE), Northeastern Brazil. To this end, the SisBaHiA® hydrodynamic model and the ADIOS2 oil weathering/decay model were implemented to perform hydrodynamic simulations and to simulate oil release, transport and weathering in the coastal domain of Fortaleza. The principal objectives were to implement, calibrate and validate a hydrodynamic model for the Fortaleza coastal domain using field observational data, and to simulate the formation and dispersion of oil slicks under three hypothetical spill volumes (8 m³, 200 m³ and 1000 m³) at the Mucuripe Port terminal, accounting for seasonal extremes of wind forcing and mapping areas of potential contamination. Hydrodynamic results were evaluated against observational time series from a tide gauge station and an ADCP. The comparison showed strong agreement for surface elevations (coefficient of determination R² > 0.90; PBIAS < ±1%; RMSE ≈ 5–14 cm; model–observation agreement index CIM > 90%), whereas current velocity predictions exhibited moderate performance (R² ≈ 0.40–0.50; PBIAS ≈ -3%; RMSE ≈ 0.08 m/s; CIM > 80%), reflecting the greater physical complexity involved in the spatiotemporal representation of coastal currents. Oil-spill simulations produced maps that combine probabilistic representations of areas potentially affected by hydrocarbons with deterministic trajectories for the events deemed critical. It is concluded that SisBaHiA® can provide useful inputs for local-scale risk assessment and response planning, although further adjustments and refinements, as well as continuity of this research, are recommended to optimize the model’s predictive capability for oil behaviour in the marine environment.