Impactos econômicos, sociais e ambientais na produção de soja no matopiba

Abstract

Brazil is the world’s second-largest producer of soybeans, one of the most widely cultivated and consumed grains. However, all this economic progress is taking place in a region that encompasses 91% of the Cerrado biome, the second-largest in Latin America, known for its rich biodiversity and its fundamental importance for preserving the climate and natural resources essential to human survival. This study aims to assess the impacts of soybean production on greenhouse gas emissions and the generation of externalities in the MATOPIBA region. Specifically, the study sought to: a) Analyze the temporal dynamics of the expansion of soybean cultivation into areas of native vegetation and areas previously cultivated with traditional food crops in the MATOPIBA region; b) Investigate the factors influencing GHG emissions and reductions in agricultural production in the MATOPIBA region between 2006 and 2017; c) Analyze the socioeconomic vulnerabilities of municipalities in the MATOPIBA region, identifying and quantifying the main deficiencies related to local social and economic development; d) Analyze the spatiotemporal transformations in land use and land cover, as well as the associated transitions in the MATOPIBA region between 1985 and 2023. Secondary data were used, taken from the Demographic Census, the Agricultural Census, the Annual Mapping Project of Land Use and Land Cover in Brazil (MapBiomas), the Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals Estimation System (SEEG), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the Municipal Agricultural Production (PAM). The shift-share model was used to achieve the first objective. A hybrid methodology was used for the second objective, with the first stage using linear models (principal component decomposition) and, subsequently, nonlinear models (artificial neural networks). The third research objective was achieved using Factor Analysis, with the principal component decomposition technique. The fourth objective was to cartographically represent the spatiotemporal analyses, the spatial distribution of land cover and land use classes, and the transitions, using remote sensing techniques. The results obtained in Chapter 1 showed that, between 1985 and 2022, soybean cultivation expanded, increasing productivity and area by replacing native vegetation and food plots. The results obtained in Chapter 2 indicated that of the 337 municipalities that make up MATOPIBA, only 100 did not experience an increase in GHG emissions between 2006 and 2017. In Chapter 3, the results achieved indicated that the IVI_MATOPIBA was 45.37%, with a heterogeneous distribution among the states: Maranhão had the highest index (52.31%), followed by Piauí (46.36%), Bahia (46.63%), and Tocantins (38.12%). The results acquired in Chapter 4 show that, in the last 37 years, 18.03 million hectares were converted from natural vegetation to agricultural land, with soybean cultivation growing to 4.70 million hectares. The research revealed multidimensional changes in the MATOPIBA region, transforming the social, economic, and environmental aspects of Brazil’s last agricultural frontier. Analysis of the impacts of soybean expansion revealed interrelationships between economic growth, environmental degradation, and socioeconomic vulnerabilities in the region. The conclusion is that understanding these dynamics is crucial to informing public policies that promote a more sustainable agricultural development model in the Brazilian Cerrado.