Completude contratual e governança de riscos na parceria público-privada da usina de dessalinização de água do mar no Ceará: uma análise comparada

Abstract

The State of Ceará faces structural challenges related to water scarcity arising from semi-arid climatic conditions and hydrogeological characteristics that limit the availability of surface and groundwater resources. This historical context compromises regional water security and has been further intensified by recent economic dynamism, urban expansion, and growing demand from strategic industrial sectors. In this setting, desalination - internationally consolidated as a strategy to diversify water supply sources - has been incorporated into the state’s water security agenda through a public-private partnership (PPP). Although widely adopted in Brazil and internationally, PPPs involve significant challenges related to risk identification, allocation, and mitigation, particularly in sectors such as sanitation, which are characterized by natural monopoly, high regulatory complexity, and long-term contracts. Accordingly, this study analyzes the contract of the seawater desalination PPP in Ceará, examining its degree of contractual completeness, risk allocation, and institutionalized governance arrangements. For this purpose, a comparative analysis tool was developed based on the PROMETHEE II multicriteria method, structured around the dimensions of risks and critical success factors (CSFs). The tool was designed to be broadly applicable to the comparative analysis of any desalination PPP contract, allowing for the assessment of contractual completeness, regulatory robustness, and the coherence of risk allocation. For demonstrative purposes and to explore its applicability in the water sector, the tool was applied to the contract of the seawater desalination PPP in Ceará. The results indicate a high degree of alignment between the contract and international best practices, with a risk allocation consistent with the management capacities of the parties and robust mechanisms for risk mitigation, dispute resolution, and governance. Comparison with the GI Hub risk allocation matrix and with international cases reveals a functional allocation adapted to the local institutional context. The multicriteria evaluation places the project at a level comparable to reference plants such as San Diego and Sorek, indicating a contractual and institutional framework of high maturity, despite existing operational and land-related challenges. Overall, the findings show that the Ceará PPP combines technical rigor with institutional flexibility and may serve as a relevant benchmark for future desalination projects in Brazil.