Análise da influência das oscilações pluviométricas na degradação do pavimento asfáltico: estudo de caso de levantamentos funcionais no estado do Ceará

Abstract

Climate change has been intensifying in recent decades, causing changes in the frequency and intensity of precipitation events, including in northeastern Brazil. In this context, it is important to analyze how rainfall variability relates to the functional performance of road pavements, especially in regions with unique climates, such as the state of Ceará. This study investigates the relationship between average annual precipitation and the functional condition of the road network in Ceará from 2012 to 2024, based on data collected by the National Transportation Confederation (CNT), published annually in the CNT Highway Survey, and historical precipitation series. The evaluation classes defined by the CNT (excellent, good, fair, poor, and very poor) were considered and applied to the condition of the pavement, signage, geometry, and general state of the highways. Statistical analysis was performed using Pearson's correlation coefficient, adopting a 5% significance level in a two-tailed approach. The results indicate a strong negative correlation between average annual precipitation and the proportion of pavements classified as excellent, both for pavement condition (r = −0.90) and for the general condition of the highway (r = −0.71), evidencing a reduction in the best conditions in rainier periods. In contrast, significant positive correlations were observed between increased precipitation and growth in good (r = 0.73) and poor (r = 0.76) pavement ratings, suggesting a progressive shift from superior conditions to intermediate and inferior levels. For signage, the correlations were predominantly moderate, indicating less direct sensitivity to rainfall variations. Geometry showed distinct behavior, with a positive correlation for the fair class (r = 0.69) and a negative correlation for the poor class (r = −0.67). Taken together, the results show that rainfall patterns influence the functional condition of highways in Ceará, especially in terms of pavement and overall condition, with direct implications for maintenance and rehabilitation planning. Finally, the study highlights the importance of complementary analyses that incorporate other conditioning factors, such as traffic, temperature, drainage, and maintenance practices, aiming at a more comprehensive understanding of pavement performance in the current scenario of climate change.