A gestão ambiental dos municípios e as estratégias de convivência com a seca no semiárido brasileiro

Abstract

The brazilian Semi-arid region is highly vulnerable to climate change and demands effective adaptation policies. As the closest level of government to the population, municipalities are expected to play a key role in managing drought through adequate administrative capacity. Given the recurrence of droughts and their associated impacts, this study assumes that effective adaptation requires more than emergency measures. It relies on the local institutional capacity to plan and implement long-term strategies. Despite extensive research on drought, the municipal role in tackling it remains understudied. This research advances the discussion by assessing the contribution of municipal environmental management to the implementation of resilience strategies in the Semi-arid region. Based on data from the Survey of Basic Municipal Information, three composite indices were developed for the Brazilian Semi-arid region: the Drought Impact Index (DII), the Drought Resilience Strategy Implementation Index (DRSII), and the Environmental Management Index (EMI). The results indicate that the DII has the highest average value (0.46), followed by the DRSII at 0.38, and the EMI at 0.24. This suggests that, on average, municipalities in the Semi-arid region are highly exposed and vulnerable to drought, and that additional measures are needed to mitigate these impacts. The findings also reveal that resilience strategies are more likely to be adopted in areas where the effects of drought are already evident, indicating a reactive rather than proactive approach. Statistical and spatial analyses were carried out to explore the relationship between environmental management and the drought strategies adopted by municipalities. The application of Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) to the individual territorial distribution of the EMI and DRSII revealed a pattern of global spatial dependence, suggesting that institutional responses to drought and environmental management tend to follow regional diffusion dynamics influenced by regional factors. To further investigate the spatial connection between these two indices, a bivariate spatial autocorrelation analysis was conducted. Although no significant global spatial autocorrelation was detected, the local analysis identified meaningful clusters. These were areas where EMI values in one municipality were associated with DRSII values in neighboring municipalities. To deepen the understanding of the statistical strength of this relationship, regression models were estimated. The association between the indices proved to be statistically significant across all models, with spatial models providing a better fit and explanatory capacity. The results emphasize the role of local governments in building drought resilience strategies both within their territories and in neighboring areas. They point to the need for integrated policies that improve environmental governance and adaptive capacity in Semi-arid municipalities, especially in critical regions. Promoting the exchange of good practices from reference areas can support this effort. A regional approach to drought management at the municipal level can help develop more effective joint programs and actions in the municipality administration scale, strengthening the resilience of local institutions and communities.