Impacto das enchentes no Rio Grande do Sul no preço do arroz em 2024

Abstract

Rice is an essential food in the Brazilian diet, and its pricing is influenced by factors such as supply, demand, and climate events. In 2024, a climate catastrophe in Rio Grande do Sul, the state responsible for approximately 70% of the country's rice production, significantly impacted production and grain prices, highlighting the need to analyze the effects of such events on the market. This study evaluates rice price dynamics through the application of statistical models, such as linear regression and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing, aiming to understand the magnitude of the climate impact on prices. The research used historical price data adjusted by the IGP-M index from 2005 to 2024. The results indicate that the climate event raised prices above the historical average, with an average impact of R$3.14 per sack between April and December 2024, reaching R$7.46 per sack in the most affected months. The Holt-Winters model presented a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 8.02 and a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 9.26, demonstrating moderate accuracy in price forecasting. The study emphasizes the importance of accurate predictions to assist producers in decision-making, support public policies, and help mitigate the economic impacts of climate events.