Análise de perdas e apuração de garantia física na geração fotovoltaica centralizada: estudo de caso utilizando o software PVsyst

Abstract

The growth of photovoltaic generation in the Brazilian electricity matrix requires precise methodologies for estimating production and making new projects viable. The aim of this work is to demonstrate, in a detailed and applied manner, the complete procedure for analyzing losses in photovoltaic generation and calculating the Physical Guarantee of a large photovoltaic plant, starting with the choice of location, choice of equipment, energy simulation and ending with the results of P50 production, performance indicators and Physical Guarantee. To this end, a case study was developed for a plant located in Icó-CE, using data measured on site by a solarimetric station and the software PVcase for the design of the physical arrangement and PVsyst for the energy simulation, from which the P50 production was obtained. The methodology integrated technical loss assumptions and unavailability rates (TEIF and IP) based on references from the Energy Research Company (EPE) and the Electricity Trading Chamber (CCEE). The simulation resulted in a 20-year average P50 production of 69.350 MW h, after applying all loss factors, a final Physical Guarantee of 7,4 MWaverage was calculated for the plant’s 20 years of operation. The conclusion is that unavailability factors and systemic losses have a material impact on the energy that can actually be sold, and that the application of a structured methodology, combining computer simulation and regulatory assumptions, is fundamental for the correct technical assessment of photovoltaic projects.