Definição de fatores de escassez hídrica futuros considerando cenários de mudanças climáticas

Abstract

Water scarcity is a worrying issue that has been seriously discussed in recent years. One of the causes that aggravate it is climate change, which generates alterations in hydrological processes, affecting ecosystems, society and productive sectors. In this sense, the present work aims to generate future Characterization Factors (FC's), considering climate change scenarios for the analysis of water scarcity in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) studies of productive systems. The methodology is divided into four stages: i) Bibliographic review of models for estimating future water demand published in the literature to identify and adapt the most appropriate model for generating water demand data. ii) Generation of water demand and availability data to calculate the Water Scarcity Characterization Factor. iii) Definition of the future FC and its comparison with original and regionalized factors. iv) Application of the index generated in a case study through LCA. It was observed that the methodology of the National Water Agency - ANA was presented as the most adequate to the evaluated criteria. An increase in future water demand is expected due to population growth, growth in industrial activity and livestock activities, in addition to the reduction in precipitation rates and temperature rise. Despite the great uncertainty inherent in water availability projection studies, a reduction in flows due to changes in the hydrological cycle is expected. The generated future characterization factor resembles the regionalized CF and both indicate maximum water scarcity in the region, when applied. In the analysis of the case study, it was possible to conclude that similar productive systems can generate different impacts on water scarcity, depending on the location of the system and the CFs considered. In situations where the use of the generated index indicates a possible worsening of water scarcity, it is recommended to rethink the location and functioning of the productive system, as well as the elaboration and execution of mitigating studies to the generated impacts.