Hanseníase no Norte e Nordeste do Brasil: uma análise espaço-temporal, de 2013 a 2022

Abstract

Leprosy is a disease caused by Mycobacterium leprae that It generates several repercussions for the individual, ranging from physical changes to social stigmas. It is endemic in Brazil, with a heterogeneous distribution pattern with a predilection for places with high socioeconomic vulnerability and its treatment is available free of charge in the SUS. OBJECTIVE: To identify the temporal trend and spatio-temporal organization based on the relative risk (rr) of contracting the disease and correlate this with the socioeconomic standard, based on the HDI of the locations, in the north and northeast regions of Brazil, from 2013 to 2022. METHODS: This is an ecological, retrospective study, based on a spatio-temporal analysis based on the Poisson statistical model (SaTScan) correlated to the 2021 state HDI values and a purely temporal analysis based on the regression model by inflection points (joinpoint) on leprosy in the north and northeast of the country. RESULTS: The spatio-temporal analysis revealed 5 clusters, 2 with high relative risk values (n) and 3 with low values. In the temporal trend, the graphs produced highlighted a reduction over the years with negative APC and AAPC values for both regions analyzed individually (NORTH APC: -1.58 and -13.33 and AAPC: -6.98; NORTHEAST: APC and AAPC: -4.77) or when analyzing them together (APC and AAPC: -5.16). CONCLUSION: A tendency towards a reduction in the emergence of new cases was observed during the period analyzed, however, surveillance of leprosy cases must persist, given the presence of underreporting among the population where this may have been increased as a result of the Covid pandemic -19.