Priorização de rotas de ônibus para eletrificação no município de Fortaleza baseado em análise multicritério e SIG

Abstract

Air pollution from motorized transport based on the burning of ethanol, gasoline and diesel has implications for human health, such as worsening asthma symptoms and lung problems. The electromobility of public transport has the advantage of having low or no emission of polluting gases, on the other hand, the limited autonomy of the batteries, the long charging time and the high acquisition costs make it difficult for companies to adopt this technology. In this sense, this proposal seeks to prioritize bus routes in the city of Fortaleza-CE for electrification, considering demand/supply, environmental and social criteria, through the integration of multicriteria analysis and GIS. In this study, GTFS and ticketing data from November 2018 were used, which were processed in the QGIS software. Based on the literature and available data, 10 sub-criteria were considered: Route demand, Line/route extension, Operating fleet, Travel time, Number of daily trips, Terminal area, Distance from the Terminal to the Power substation, Emission of CO2, Total Population and Population Income Level. A questionnaire was applied to the different actors in the public transport system, and based on the average and mode of the responses, the weights of the subcriteria were determined using the MACBETH method. The weights were used in the TOPSIS algorithm to determine similarity values and rank the routes. Subsequently, the Moran Index was applied to identify possible significant clusters and an analysis of the technical feasibility of electrification of the 5 priority routes was carried out. The three routes with the highest priority were: 1) Route 041- Parangaba/Oliveira Paiva/Papicu, 2) 712 - Conj. Palmeiras/Papicu and 3) 703- Paupina/Pici, which had higher average daily demand, CO2 emissions and bus fleet. The replacement of diesel buses with electric ones on the 10 priority routes could reduce CO2 emissions by approximately 63 tons. CO2/day, which is equivalent to a 13% reduction. Considering the feasibility of electrifying the 5 priority routes, routes 712 and 051 are the most critical, as they have 100% and 93.75% of the fleet in need of recharging during the day. To meet the number of daily trips made on these routes, it would be necessary to increase the current bus fleet, since the adoption of a rotation system is not operationally viable when more than 50% of the fleet needs to recharge its battery during the day.