Uma análise da Lei de Okun para os estados brasileiros

Abstract

This paper aims to analyze and validate the relationship between unemployment rate and output growth, known as Okun law, for the Brazilian economy with a regional analysis. For this, we used panel data from the 27 Brazilian federative states, from 2002 to 2014, with the variables GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and the unemployment rate of each state. In possession of these variables, different variants of the original Okun's law model were estimated. The validation of the Okun coefficient shows that increases in output growth may influence the fall in the unemployment rate. Thus, the government can take measures that encourage output growth in order to reduce the unemployment rate, generating a public policy based on focus on lowering the most efficient unemployment rate. The results obtained for the Okun coefficient were around those obtained by other authors for the Brazilian economy, even though none of the articles on Okun's law for Brazil used panel data and a regional analysis. The results in the original Okun Law model were a coefficient around -0.25, which means that a 1% increase in output relative to its potential level decreases the unemployment rate by -0.25% compared to your natural level.