O impacto dos desembolsos do BNDES nas exportações da agropecuária brasileira: uma análise de cointegração variante no tempo

Abstract

Since the 1960s, the Brazilian government has provided support to the agricultural sector through instruments such as rural credit linked to the National Rural Credit System (SNCR). With the macroeconomic crisis of the 1980s, however, the National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES) needed to allocate investments to this sector. Currently, the BNDES offers 14 agricultural support programs to rural producers, agro-businesses and cooperatives, in addition to six Finame credit lines. Considering this and the fact that Brazil is the fifth largest exporter of agricultural commodities in the world, the present study aims to evaluate the effects of BNDES disbursements on these exports, in addition to estimating the elasticities of the real exchange rate, income foreign exchange and commodities taking into account the timevarying perspective proposed by Bierens and Martin (2010). This methodology is innovative and timely for applications in emerging economies, given that they are subject to various internal and external shocks. Data for the period from January 2000 to July 2019 were used. The results indicate that BNDES disbursements favor Brazilian agricultural exports, with little volatile effects throughout the entire sample. Dynamic analysis, however, points to a reduction in these inflows over time. The evidence also highlights the importance of the dynamics of agricultural commodity prices and external demand in Brazilian agricultural exports, since they presented the highest average elasticities. The real effective exchange rate also had a positive impact on Brazilian agricultural exports in most of the sample, but with strong variability. Finally, the impacts of foreign income were positive and without major fluctuations. Keywords: BNDES; exports; time-varying cointegration.