Análise estrutural do comércio externo de algodão e café

Abstract

Brazil is a leading country in both production and exports of coffee and is also one of the largest producers of cotton. Since Brazil plays such a prominent role in the world market, it is essential that those agencies responsible for making policy affecting the production/commercialization of these products possess the necessary structure to constant ly provide the country with information about prior market conditions, in particular, factors which may influence : supply, demand and international market prices. In order to provide part of this information, the present research study addresses the structure of cotton and coffee markets in order to identify which variables better explain sypply and demand for exports of coffee and cotton. Since this study is based on the simultaneaes equation approach to suplly and demand a complete general equilibrium model was used to estimate the desired structural coefficients. Based on the research results, the export supply of cotton was found to be price inelastic while demand appeared to be highly sensitive to cotton price variations. The estimate obtained for the coffee supply price-elasticity coefficient led to the conclusion that coffee exports supply reacts only slightly to variations in world prices. A similar result was found with respect to coffee exports demand. Evidence was also found to support the conclusion that Brazilian Coffee is a normal good in the U.S. market. However, with respect to the United Kingdom market, the income-elasticity was found to be negative meaning that, for this particular case, Brazilian coffee faces a strong competitor and close substitute - probably tea.