Oferta de crédito público e saldo de perdas ante um cenário de choques políticos-intitucionais, econômicos e sanitários: um estudo de caso a partir do Banco do Brasil

Abstract

This paper shows the importance of credit supply for economic growth and evaluates the relationship between this variable and the bank's loss balance in a scenario of politicalinstitutional, sanitary and sanitary shocks. For this purpose, an empirical study is carried out in a time series between the first quarter of 2002 and the first quarter of 2022, with data from two Banco do Brasil portfolios. The estimates would allow us to infer that, on a quarterly basis, there is no seasonality in relation to the losses of the Loan Portfolio, as well as this balance of losses is mainly influenced by the size of the Portfolio, and may increase by 2% to 3% for each BRL 10,000.00 (ten thousand reais) additional. Reducing the complete sample to the pre-covid and pre-impeachment subperiods showed that, until the pandemic, there was no loss of statistical significance in the size of the Portfolio as an explanation factor for the balance of losses. It was also found that in the post-impeachment period there is no relationship between the loan portfolio and the balance of losses, which suggests that other factors had more impact in the period. The results suggest the need to ensure an optimal size for the volume of the credit portfolio, under penalty of incurring greater losses in periods of high instability.