Testando diferentes esquemas da Parametrização Cumulus do modelo WRF, para a região norte Nordeste do Brasileiro

Abstract

The greatest obstacle to conducting climate studies in Northeast Brazil is the lack of continuous data series, long-term, spatially well-distributed, and high-quality observations. Alternative sources of data have been sought. One of the main tools for long-term atmospheric studies is the global and regional climate models. The use of a regional model allows the obtaining of continuous four-dimensional series, related to any atmospheric phenomenon. From the regional models available in the literature, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) have been standing out as a model of last generation of numerical forecast of weather and climate. The objective of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity of the WRF model to the different physical parameterization options on the northern Northeast of Brazil (NNEB). The convection scheme that best represented the weather and climate conditions for the NNEB would be chosen. The choice was made by comparing the results of the simulations with the rain data of the MERGE / CPTEC product. The analyzes were performed for two cases of mesoscale convective systems (SCN) on the NNEB, which occurred on January 14 and March 30, 2016. In the obtained results, it was possible to perceive that the simulations showed great differences according to the cumulus scheme used. The Taylor Diagram was used as a statistical tool to analyze the dexterity of the WRF simulations in relation to the observed data, resulting in the parameterization of Grell (E5) in the event of the day 01/01 and Grelle Freitas (E5) for the day 30 / 03, with BIAS around 1.