Desempenho das simulações do Projeto Cordex quanto à representação dos padrões de variação da precipitação no século XX sobre o município de Fortaleza, Ceará

Abstract

The evaluation method applied was the one proposed by Silveira et al. (2019). The research sought to evaluate simulations of the Cordex Project models for the South America domain that provide monthly frequency rainfall data from the Historical experiment family for the city of Fortaleza, Ceará. Four RCMs were found nested with ten GCMs totaling sixteen combinations named here simply by “models”. To perform the comparison, data from the Pici Station (338001) obtained from the HidroWeb Portal during the period from 1970 to 2005 were used. The regional ETA model presented the best performance in the representativeness of the present climate. Driving by the global CanESM2 model, according to the AVALs index, was the best simulation for the period evaluated with a CORREL of 0.96 and RMSE_PC of 3.01%. The direct relationship between the classification order and grid spacing was evident, that is, the higher the resolution of the model, the better positioned in the classification. After evaluating these models, researchers interested in applying modeling data in Fortaleza will have a scientific framework to adopt appropriate models in their research. In theory, models that can adequately represent the present climate, possibly also will be able to represent the future climate.