Análise da severidade dos acidentes com motociclistas sobre a ótica dos sistemas seguros: um estudo utilizando modelos de equações estruturais

Abstract

Motorcycles are increasingly present in major urban centers. Several reasons encourage the adoption of this way, for example, their agility and ease of acquisition. Because of his vulnerability, even with the decrease in the number of deaths in recent years in Fortaleza, Brazil, the motorcyclist is still the user with the highest fatality rate. The new paradigms of road safety, Safe Systems and Vision Zero, try to create a culture of improved safety with a focus on reducing serious injuries and fatalities. The dimensions of Safe Systems: Safe Users, Safe Roads, Safe Speeds, and Safe Vehicles are reflected by indicators or variables, who try conceptually to structure the dimensions. There is a need for modeling that can adequately represent the dimensions and incorporate the multiple relationships between the variables. In this context, this monograph aims to evaluate the influence of the variables representing the dimensions of the Safe Systems using the Structural Equation Models (SEM) approach with a focus on motorcyclists at crossroads. To realize this objective, a georeferenced base of traffic accidents incorporating the intersection factors was consolidated using data from the city of Fortaleza. Subsequently, measurement models were developed, first with the creation of a theoretical model, using indicators from the literature, then another model, using the variables from the databases with the due correspondence between the collected variables and individual indicators. Finally, a final measurement model has developed, with some adjustments, it was able to represent the dimensions acceptably. The proposed structural model, created from the last measurement model, obtained satisfactory metrics of adjustment. The results showed that the dimensions of Safe Users and Safe Vehicles are those that directly influence the safety of motorcyclists. More experienced motorcyclists, safer vehicles, lower speed adoption, and an urban street design aimed at the road safety of motorcyclists are necessary to achieve a Safe System.