Teste de sensibilidade da PBL (Camada Limite Planetária) no modelo numérico WRF em sinergia com imagens do satélite Meteosat para analisar ilhas de calor em Fortaleza-Ce.

Abstract

In this work, a sensitivity test was performed from the change of parameterizations in the simulations of the Weather Research and Forecast model from August 1 to August 10, 2019, for the State of Ceará in order to analyze the heat island phenomenon for the metropolitan region of the city of Fortaleza. For this purpose, four experimental simulations were configured, alternating the parameterizations of the Planetary Boundary Layer (PLC) - the Asymmetric Convective Model V2 (ACM2), Yonsei University (YSU), Bougeault-Lacarrere (BOULAC) and Medium Range Forecast Model ( MRF). The air temperature at 2m simulated by the model was evaluated and compared using the statistical calculation Correlation Index, Statistical Bias, Absolute Error and Root Mean Square Error, with data from meteorological stations of the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET). The results showed that the model was sensitive to changes in physical schemes. The experiments configured with the ACM2 scheme, showed better correlations and YSU the best values for error (bias, MAE and RMSE). In this sense, the YSU scheme was selected to study the phenomenon of the heat island in Fortaleza. The selected days were August 8-10, 2019 due to the total absence of clouds. Surface temperature maps were analyzed using satellite data (METEOSAT -11) and the regional WRF model for the hours of 9:00 am, 3:00 pm and 9:00 pm. On 9:00 am maps, the model underestimates the surface temperature in relation to satellite data, while at 3:00 pm and 9:00 pm the model overestimates. The observed results referring to the surface temperature were higher in the central regions of the city of Fortaleza than in the peripheral regions, showing the presence of HF in the metropolitan area of Fortaleza, presenting 6ºC to 9ºC at 15: 00h.