Comparação entre indicadores proxy sintéticos de segurança viária e acidentes de trânsito em interseções semaforizadas de Fortaleza

Abstract

Microscopic traffic simulation has been developed and applied over the past two decades with focus towards the design and operation of transportation systems. Recently, due to advancements in data collection techniques and microscopic algorithms, the po-tential of microscopic simulation as a tool for safety evaluation has been explored more extensively. This type of approach may allow better knowledge regarding the chain of events preceding crash occurrences, therefore leading to a more comprehensive methodology for safety studies when compared to traditional observational studies. This paper presented a validation effort between observed rear-end collisions and simulated traffic conflicts as reflected by three SPM namely: Time to Collision - TTC, Deceleration Rate to Avoid the Crash - DRAC and Crash Potential Index - CPI. We collected three years of accident data (2007-2009) for four hours of the morn-ing (7h00-11h00) and were compared with the number of traffic conflicts estimated by a microscopic simulation experiment. The re-sults indicated that all SPM tested were able to capture the differences in the number of accidents among the three different study sites, suggesting a great potential for application of this approach in the safety analyzes. On the other hand, to achieve wider results it's nec-essary to apply the method proposed in a more representative sample.