Avaliação das previsões subsazonais para as regiões homogêneas do estado do Ceará.

Abstract

The subseasonal forecast models emerged as a new tool for precipitation forecasts on a time scale of weeks. The forecasts allow experts to do a better plan decision-making across sectors such as reservoir management and agriculture. The subseasonal forecast fills a time scale that lies between the weather forecast (up to 15 days) and the weather forecast (months of forecast). The State of Ceará suffered a severe drought between 2012 and 2016, with major impacts on society and the economy. Subseasonal forecasts help to plan and mitigate impacts. This work investigates the predictive ability of the ECMWF and UKMO models, based on statistical indices, for the homogeneous regions of the state of Ceará. The results show that the models have the ability to capture precipitation events for certain thresholds, especially in the pre-rainy season. It was also observed that as the forecast horizon increases, there is a reduction in the confidence of forecasts. During the rainy season, the models also had a certain ability to capture events for certain precipitation thresholds.